ANALYSIS – 2028: Rubio Closes the Gap on Vance – the “Dream Team” Ticket Is Already Taking Shape
By Angélique Bouchard
A new poll from New Hampshire, the state that for a century has held the first Republican presidential primary, has just shattered the long-assumed scenario of a smooth succession. According to the University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released this week, Vice President JD Vance now stands at just 36% support among likely GOP primary voters, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26%. The gap, which stood at 46 points in February (53% to 7%), has narrowed to only 10 points.
Vance remains the clear frontrunner and the natural heir to Donald Trump and the MAGA base. But Rubio’s spectacular rise, fueled by his central role in the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the ongoing war against Iran, has turned what looked like a one-man race into a genuine contest. Trump himself has lavished praise on his secretary of state, declaring that he would go down as “the greatest secretary of state in history.” The president has also floated a Vance-Rubio ticket he called “unstoppable” and a “dream team,” without ever saying who should sit at the top of the ticket.
The Vance-Rubio duo: public friendship, real competition, and a tightrope
Vance and Rubio repeatedly describe each other as close friends. The vice president told Fox News: “Marco is my closest friend in the administration. I think it’s so interesting the media wants to create this conflict where there just isn’t any conflict.” More recently, when confronted with speculation about a joint ticket, Vance responded: “I love Marco. I think he’s a great secretary of state. He’s become a very, very dear friend. But I think both of us are very much focused on accomplishing the American people’s business right now.” He added that he would “hate” to be “someone who’s barely been in one office for a year and a half already angling for the next job.”
Yet a group of Republican donors supportive of Rubio is quietly exploring ways to boost his political profile. That effort is not sitting well with some in Trump’s political orbit. An operative in the president’s circle warned: “Vice President Vance is the future of the Republican Party and Marco Rubio is one of his closest friends in the administration. The divisive stories from some donors trying to cause chaos are not helpful.”
A longtime Republican strategist offered a more pointed warning: “Vance is in the catbird seat until something really goes bad and Trump is going to blame him… I can’t imagine Vance walking this tightrope for two more years without pissing off Trump.”
New Hampshire-based Republican consultant David Carney, a veteran of numerous presidential campaigns, summed it up: “There’s nobody else in the conversation besides those two, so this poll makes sense.”
The Turning Point USA endorsement: a strategic power play
As early as December 2025, Erika Kirk, widow of Charlie Kirk and new leader of Turning Point USA, formally endorsed Vance at the AmericaFest summit. “We are going to get my husband’s friend JD Vance elected for 48 in the most resounding way possible,” she declared. A longtime Trump adviser commented: “It wasn’t a surprise to see her endorse, given that while he was still alive, Charlie couldn’t have been more explicit about supporting Vance in 2028.” The endorsement, he added, “reaffirmed that Turning Point’s entire political machinery will be behind him if he decides to run. It’s another big get for the vice president and a warning shot to other potential candidates.”
Turning Point USA is not simply a group of young conservatives. It is one of the most powerful grassroots organizations on the American right, capable of mobilizing tens of thousands of activists and exerting lasting influence over the MAGA base. This early endorsement changes the nature of the race: it gives Vance a grassroots infrastructure that Rubio, who is busy crisscrossing the globe as secretary of state, does not yet possess. In a cycle in which ground-game capacity will be decisive, this backing constitutes a major structural advantage.
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The Democratic contrast: AOC surges, Harris collapses
While Republicans focus on the succession to Trump, the Democratic side is showing signs of a brutal realignment. In the same New Hampshire poll, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surged to the front with 22% support among likely Democratic primary voters, one point ahead of Pete Buttigieg and 17 points ahead of Kamala Harris, who collapsed to just 5% (down from 10% in February).
Harris, the party’s 2024 nominee after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, has lost half her support. Gavin Newsom also dropped seven points. Bernie Sanders, 84, quipped: “I know I look like I’m 30. I am not.” Ocasio-Cortez, for her part, has refused to rule out either a presidential run or a Senate challenge against Chuck Schumer. “My goal is to change the country,” she said.
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, noted: “Nearly half of socialists and one-third of progressives support Ocasio-Cortez, while pluralities of liberals and moderates support Buttigieg.”
As early as December 2025, Harris and Newsom were already making high-profile appearances at the DNC winter meeting, laying the groundwork for an open race. The contrast is striking: while Republicans are structuring themselves around two strong figures tied to Trump, Democrats appear headed toward an internal war between the radical progressive wing and more moderate or worn-out figures.
Stephen A. Smith: “Not a damn soul” can beat this ticket
As early as October 2025, ESPN host Stephen A. Smith had already rendered his verdict. Asked about a potential Vance-Rubio ticket, he stated flatly: “The answer would be no one. Not a damn soul.” He even ranked Rubio above Vance: “Marco Rubio gets things done. He is no joke. I put him above Vice President Vance, I can tell you that much.”
Smith added that if the Israel-Hamas peace deal secured by the Trump administration proved lasting, “I don’t think anybody’s going to be able to compete with Marco Rubio, who Trump called maybe the greatest secretary of state in American history.”
Rand Paul, the “free-market” alternative to Trump-Vance populism
On the right, Rand Paul is keeping the door wide open to a possible 2028 run. The Kentucky senator, who presents himself as the defender of the party’s free-market wing, declared: “There needs to be a free-market wing of the Republican Party. And I want to be part of trying to ensure that still exists.” He has criticized the protectionism of the Trump-Vance era and said he will decide after the 2026 midterms.
In the same poll, Paul and Nikki Haley stand at 8%, Ron DeSantis at 6%. Everyone else tested registered at 4% or less.
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With six months to go until the midterms and two years until the race to succeed Trump, the Republican landscape is no longer as fixed as it appeared a few months ago. Vance remains the frontrunner, bolstered by the Turning Point USA endorsement, but Rubio has turned a 46-point gap into a 10-point contest. Trump continues to praise both men, calling them a “dream team,” while refusing to choose. Stephen A. Smith, for his part, has already decided: against a Vance-Rubio ticket, “not a damn soul” could win.
The great game of 2028 has begun. For the first time, there is no longer a single heir apparent, but two. New Hampshire has just confirmed it. And in this emerging competition, every move by Trump, every endorsement, and every polling point will carry heavy weight.
À lire aussi : DÉCRYPTAGE – Vance et Rubio, le Liban comme champ de bataille de l’après-Trump
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